Note: Check out the comments for a humbling but very informative reply from the title character of kenn.com. I’d apologize for my hurried piece (yep, I rushed this one big time) if it hadn’t spurned such a great response.
From my CSNNE.com piece today:
The return of Landon Donovan and Edson Buddle to MLS action on Sunday also marked the LA Galaxy’s first match since before the World Cup. Twenty-seven thousand flocked to the stadium to welcome the duo home from South Africa, a mind-boggling 37.5 percent increase over the Galaxy’s 2010 average attendance coming into the match. On the field, the twice-teammates showed their camaraderie when Donovan assisted on a Buddle goal early in the 19th minute as the Galaxy improved to 11-1-3 on the season with a 3-1 win over Seattle Sounders FC. The hookup furthered Buddle’s and Donovan’s respective MLS leads in goals and assists, as each has now compiled 10 in his given category.
MLS attendance at large is up nearly 10 percent in 2010 from 2009, averaging over 16,442 fans a game. In fact, nine out of 12 teams to have hosted a match since the World Cup started saw attendance go up from its last pre-tournament figure. The Revolution, unfortunately, have seen a 19.9% drop in attendance from 2009 and draw just over 10.5 thousand to Gillette Stadium. At 3-9-2, the Revs currently look set to miss the playoffs for the first time since 2002, so that likely has something to do with the disappointing (and concerning) figure.
So what do we think? In 1998 and 2002, MLS attendance did not increase from pre-Cup to post-Cup, and in 2006 the improvement was minimal. But so far, 9 of 12 clubs have reported increases over their last match before the Cup and 8 of the 12 have reported increases over their 2010 average fan figure. And two of those sides still reported above average attendance compared to the rest of the league.
It’s too early to tell if this year’s World Cup has had an impact on MLS attendance figures, but the early signs are pretty positive.
Adam T. Vaccaro
iholliday
Martin McClean Ryan
“Mind-boggling?”
The Galaxy almost always announces 27,000 for a big game like on Independence Day. It’s not mind-boggling at all.
Thanks, Jason. I am guilty of hyperbole there, but the number wasn’t necessarily the boggler so much as how much it’s outpaced the Galaxy’s average attendance this season. The point I was trying to make was that a whole lot of folks flocked to welcome back the WC fellows.
Thanks for the link, Adam, but your context is WAY off.
First, you’ve got an incredibly small sample size (one, and in three cases two, game(s) after the break) on which to try to base an assumption.
Second, it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison, given that some teams’ first game after the break was on a July 4 weekend when MLS teams routinely draw very well.
Looking at the 16 MLS teams, five have yet to have a post-WC break home game, so we’re down to 11.
Of those 11, Chivas was up (barely), Colorado was up (they always sell out the 4th of July), Columbus was down, Dallas was up, Kansas City was the same (capacity for both), Los Angeles was up, New England was up (by about a thousand), Philadelphia was down (Lincoln Financial Field has a much greater capacity than PPL Park), Salt Lake was down, San Jose was up (though you’re comparing a Wednesday night with a Saturday night there, and that has a hell of a lot more to do with it than any “World Cup Effect”) and Toronto was down.
But do you know why Toronto drew an un-Toronto-like 18,809 in its first game back from the break? Here’s why.
Your premise that “a whole lot of folks flocked to welcome back the WC fellows” may or may not have merit. It’s hard to tell. It makes for an easy story. I know people would like to believe that. But the Galaxy has now had eight July 4 games since moving into the Home Depot Center and they’ve announced 27,000 for five of them (and never less than 20,609). You can make the case, I guess, that Landon (and Buddle – ha) had something to do with it, but Landon Donovan has never moved the needle in MLS before, I’m not sure that he’ll be doing it now, Algeria be damned. And so, no, the increase for the Galaxy from their last game post-break to a July 4 game they almost always sell out isn’t “mind boggling” by any stretch of the imagination.
Point is, it’s way too early to draw any kind of conclusions about what we’re seeing happening to MLS’ numbers. For 93 games prior to the start of the World Cup, MLS averaged 16,473. For 16 games that have been played since the World Cup started, the average is 16,272. When soccer interest in this country is at a quadrennial high. But we need to let it play out a bit more before we put a stamp on it. I realize today’s culture doesn’t lend itself to that, but, really, instant analysis isn’t helping.
My personal feeling – based on years of looking at this and the habits of the American soccer-ticket buyer – is that if there’s an effect, it’s either going to be fairly small or lost amid all the other effects that combine to pull MLS attendance in one direction or another.
Wow, KT, many thanks for that. That’s the value of the blogosphere, eh? I’ve done very little work with attendance prior to this piece and now at least have a bit more of a basis by which to gain an understanding. Your comment is very much appreciated…Do you have a link where you chart your work? I’d be very interested in seeing more. I obviously have a lot to learn with regards to attendance analysis. — Adam
A ha, just realized I’m talking to the man to whom I linked (hence your thanks for the link comment). I’ll explore your site in full.
No worries, mate. I appreciate the shout-out.
I keep track of numbers, but the historical record still has some discrepancies in it (between my numbers and MLS’ numbers) so the big ol analysis I used to have I haven’t published in a while.